When I am considering a new site, I first determine if I can get each page in the top 3 results - and exactly what that would take.
I've been told that the top 3 results on the major search engines share 50% of the click-through's on any given search. I'm not sure how accurate that is, or where I first heard that tidbit now... and I'm not sure if that would be even thirds, or if the #1 result would get 50% and the other 2 results 25% each (of the 50% of all click-through's)....
This is a "guesstimate" at best
... but so far has worked out well for me.
If I feel I can get in the top 3, I will take the monthly # of searches (multipled by 30 if daily results from WordTracker), and divide it by 2. Then take 30% of that number... and multiply it by a .5 or 1% conversion rate. (Low, of course, but better results are always expected 😉 ).
For example, let's say that keyword x gets 400 searches a day, according to WordTracker. Approximately 12,000 searches per month. Divided by two, it's 6,000 - and about a third of that is 2,000. That's assuming every search results in a click - and that a #2 or #3 spot would get around 2,000 click through's a month out of 12,000 searches.
A 1% conversion rate would equal 20 sales. If your commission/profit for the product sold on that page were $30, you could anticipate approximately $600/month in revenue.
Not accurate, but a good general guage. This would, of course, have to be done for each page of your site, and the total of all pages would be your 'guesstimated' potential monthly income from the site as a whole.
If you have a different method, or other factors that should be considered in the equation, feel free to leave your thoughts in the Reply box below!
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About Lynn Terry
Interesting, Lynn! But how do you determine whether you'd be able to get your new site in the top 3? Do you analyze the current top 3 sites and say, "What a bunch of crappy sites! I can do better than that!" (But in a much more scientific way, of course! 😉
I do analyze the top 3-5 search results for each of the keyword phrases, yes - LOL. I look at how many inbound links those pages have, at the "on the page optimization" of those pages, at the website as a whole... and then if it seems a bit competitive I will analyze their inbound links a little closer to get an idea of their 'Link Reputation'.
Lynn,
When checking the amount of inbound links. Do you count the sites that are ranking high for overall categories as oppose to site that specialize in your keyword. For example Sear.com may rank high for lawn mowers because they have inbound link coming from everywhere. Do I have a chance of out ranking Sears with my site which focus on Mclane Reel Mowers?
Hi Wes,
The thing is - search engines rank pages, not sites. So you have to do a quick check on individual keyword phrases and the results for each.
For example, with the keyword phrase you mentioned, the top 4 results in Google are "authority sites" in that niche. The #5 result has just over 100 inbound links from other domains.
That's a lot of math! LOL
The figures I've gotten from the Market Samurai folks are 42% of the traffic goes to position #1, 12% to #2, and 8-9% position #3.
I take the total number of monthly searches, multiply by the percentage and divide by 200 (.5%) to guesstimate sales in each of those positions.
By the time you're at the bottom of page 1 traffic's down to 3%.
Rather eye opening don't you think? Explained a lot of my traffic problems.
I've also heard that organic search gets something like 8x the traffic of pay per click.
Susan
The numbers are great for estimating, but so many elements go into the actual CTR. The title tag & meta description, for example - a #3 spot with a compelling title tag and description could out-do a #2 spot easily, and potentially even #1. Depending on how well (or not) theirs are written...
There are a lot of ways to increase your click-through rate without actually increasing your ranking position.
This is the first time that im seeing a mathematical guess for goal conversion, but first thing is that it is very difficult to get in spot #3 rankings for a common or popular keywords and i agreed your points"There are a lot of ways to increase your click-through rate without actually increasing your ranking position" and i reckon this is the best way in order to make your guesstimation alive.
Great post. I have read it before but I am now looking at it closer.I guess it didn't sink in the first time.
Thanks for linking over to this post Lynn.
I've never seen anything like this before where it's possible to actually get some kind of estimate on the amount of traffic you could get and sales as a result. But I guess I never thought I'd be getting in the top 3 for many search results - thanks to your Elite membership my thinking has very much changed for the better!
This would be a fab Elite seminar - taking us through how you analyze a top site to determine if you'll be able to break in! I get the concept but would have no real idea how to do it for my own niche/target keywords.